基于 AHP⁃PPC 模型的全生命周期绿色建筑增量成本与建筑碳排放影响因素分析

作者：陈雨婷¹,孙永宁¹,冯莞婷¹,张良²,高亮¹

作者简介：

陈雨婷,本科在读,E⁃mail:2356939247@ qq. com

作者单位：

1. 山东建筑大学,山东济南 250000;2. 山东轨道交通勘察设计院有限公司,山东济南 250000

基金项目：

∗国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202410430001)

摘要：

在“双碳”战略目标驱动下,绿色建筑作为建筑业低碳转型的核心载体,其增量成本与碳减排效益的协同机制亟待厘清. 基于全生命周期理论框架,构建 AHP⁃PPC 混合模型,通过主观赋权与客观投影寻踪聚类的动态耦合,系统识别绿色建筑增量成本与碳排放的关键影响因素. 结果表明:施工阶段的环保材料采购成本与节能技术集成成本构成增量成本主要驱动源,运营阶段的可再生能源系统能效与围护结构热工性能对碳减排具有显著杠杆效应. 研究创新性地融合静态权重分析与动态数据投影,有效克服传统 AHP 方法的主观局限性,据此提出的四维优化路径,即材料优选、技术适配、能源替代、性能迭代,为绿色建筑的“成本⁃碳效”双向优化提供了决策框架. 成果不仅完善了绿色建筑全生命周期评价方法体系,更为行业践行“双碳”目标提供了兼具理论深度与实践价值的解决方案.

关键词：绿色建筑;增量成本;碳排放;减碳;影响因素

English：

Under China’ s carbon neutrality and carbon peaking strategic goals, this study clarifies thesynergy between incremental costs and carbon reduction benefits in green buildings. A hybrid AHP⁃PPCmodel was developed within a whole⁃life⁃cycle framework, integrating subjective weighting with objectiveprojection pursuit to identify key influencing factors. The results show: Construction⁃phase driversinclude eco⁃material procurement and energy⁃efficient technology integration costs; Operational leverageeffects stem from renewable energy efficiency and building envelope thermal performance. Innovativelycombining static⁃dynamic analysis, this research overcomes traditional AHP limitations and proposes afour⁃dimensional optimization framework (material selection, technology adaptation, energy substitution,performance iteration ) for cost⁃carbon dual optimization. The results advance life⁃cycle assessmentmethodologies and provide actionable solutions for achieving carbon neutrality and carbon peaking inconstruction.

[1]	赵萧涵. 基于全寿命周期的绿色建筑增量成本影响因素及控制策略研究[D]. 济南:山东建筑大学,2024.ZHAO X H. Research on the influencing factors and controlstrategies of incremental costs of green buildings based on thewhole life cycle[D]. Jinan:Shandong Jianzhu University,2024.
[2]	孟坤. 绿色建筑增量成本影响因素及控制策略研究[D]. 天津:天津城建大学,2023.MENG K. Research on the influencing factors and controlstrategies of incremental cost of green buildings [ D]. Tianjin:Tianjin Chengjian University,2023.
[3]	郭振伟,王新雨,罗晓予,等. 绿色公共建筑全寿命期碳排放影响因素研究———以夏热冬冷地区为例 [ J]. 建筑科学,2024,40(2):12⁃18,29.GUO Z W,WANG X Y,LUO X Y,et al. Study on the influencingfactors of carbon emissions of green public buildings in the wholelife cycle:a case study in hot summer and cold winter region[J].Building science,2024,40(2):12⁃18,29.
[4]	林明超,李晓娟,卢家婧. 绿色建筑碳排放核算方法及减排路径研究[J]. 上海节能,2023(8):1111⁃1124.LIN M C,LI X J,LU J J. Research on accounting method andemission reduction path of green building carbon emissions[ J].Shanghai energy saving,2023(8):1111⁃1124.
[5]	马伊利. 基于绿色建筑碳排放分析的绿色建筑评价体系研究[D]. 邯郸:河北工程大学,2021.MA Y L. Research on green building evaluation system based ongreen building carbon emission analysis [ D]. Handan: HebeiUniversity of Engineering,2021.
[6]	孙玉峰,谢又妍,郭硕,等. 基于 SEM 的绿色建筑增量成本影响因素分析[J]. 山东工商学院学报,2023,37(5):26⁃35.SUN Y F,XIE Y Y,GUO S,et al. Analysis of influencing factorsof incremental cost life cycle of green building based on SEM[J]. Journal of Shandong Technology and Business University,2023,37(5):26⁃35.
[7]	杨文安,汤强. 基于 ISM 的绿色建筑增量成本影响因素研究[J]. 工程管理学报,2020,34(3):120⁃124.YANG W A, TANG Q. Research on the influencing factors ofgreen building incremental cost based on ISM [ J]. Journal ofengineering management,2020,34(3):120⁃124.
[8]	焦祖洋. 基于全寿命周期理论的绿色建筑成本控制[ J]. 建材与装饰,2018(21):140⁃141.JIAO Z Y. Cost control of green building based on life cycletheory [ J ]. Construction materials & decoration, 2018 ( 21 ):140⁃141.
[9]	曾庆林,陈葶葶,李幽铮. 我国绿色建筑增量成本分析[ J]. 价值工程,2014,33(31):108⁃110.ZENG Q L,CHEN T T,LI Y Z. Incremental cost analysis of thegreen building in China[ J]. Value engineering,2014,33( 31):108⁃110.
[10]	刘杰. 高层绿色建筑材料施工技术中的能源节约策略研究[J]. 佛山陶瓷,2024,34(8):73⁃75.LIU J. Research on energy saving strategy in constructiontechnology of high⁃rise green building materials [ J ]. Foshanceramics,2024,34(8):73⁃75.
[11]	刘卫东,靳海,詹衡,等. 纳米 SiO2 气凝胶复合芯材真空绝热板制备与性能研究[J]. 真空,2025,62(1):49⁃56.LIU W D,JIN H,ZHAN H, et al. Preparation and performancestudies of nano⁃SiO2aerogel composite core vacuum insulatingpanels[J]. Vacuum,2025,62(1):49⁃56.
[12]	王栋,任兆胜. 建筑围护结构节能改造技术研究[ J]. 砖瓦,2024(8):83⁃85,88.WANG D,REN Z S. Research on energy⁃saving reconstructiontechnology of building envelope[J]. Brick⁃Tile,2024(8):83⁃85,88.
[13]	朱维娜,秦颖,马丁媛,等. 碳交易试点政策发展现状及其对公共建筑的碳减排效应分析[ J/ OL]. 生态经济,2025:1⁃18.(2025⁃01⁃14).ZHU W N,QIN Y,MA D Y,et al. Analysis of the developmentstatus and carbon emission reduction effect of carbon trading pilotpolicy on public buildings[ J/ OL]. Ecological economy,2025:1⁃18. (2025⁃01⁃14).

理论研究 > 2025年 第卷 第12期