基于压力测试的建筑施工安全风险评估
作者简介:
黄莺,博士,副教授,E-mail: cch-by@ 163. com
作者单位:
西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院,陕西西安 710055
基金项目:
∗陕西省住房和城乡建设厅技术咨询项目(20210015)
摘要:
建筑施工安全存在多方参与、数据冗杂、风险因子复杂等特点,借鉴金融行业的压力测试方法,构建建筑施工安全风险压力测试评估体系,以进一步优化施工安全风险管控措施,降低事故发生概率、减少伤亡人数。即首先将建筑施工安全风险视为一个系统,划分安全系统层级,采用突变理论梳理安全系统压力演化机理,建立基于突变模糊隶属函数法的风险压力测试模型,进行定量分析并划分系统压力等级。最后,将该模型应用于西安市某项目安全风险评估中,结果表明,该项目整体风险偏低,其评估模型能够有效判定项目现阶段的安全系统压力状态以及系统压力等级,为施工安全管理提供决策依据。

English:
Construction safety in building projects is characterized by multi-party participation, redundantdata and complex risk factors, this paper draws on the stress test methods of the financial industry toconstruct a construction safety risk stress test and evaluation system, to further optimize constructionsafety risk control measures and reduce the probability of accidents and the numbers of casualties. Theconstruction safety risk is regarded as a system, the safety system level is divided, the stress evolutionmechanism of the safety system is sorted out by using the mutation theory, and the risk stress test modelbased on the mutation fuzzy membership function method is established, to carry out quantitative analysisand divide the system pressure level. Finally, the model was applied to the safety risk assessment of aproject in Xi’an. The results show that, the overall risk of the project is low, and the establishedevaluation model can effectively determine the safety system pressure state and system pressure level atthe current stage, and provide a decision-making basis for construction safety management.