基于机器学习的混合施工体系质量预测研究
作者简介:
李 亚,工程师,E⁃mail: 3420125955@ qq. com
作者单位:
中铁十八局集团第三工程有限公司,河北 涿州 072750
基金项目:
中铁十八局集团有限公司 2024 年度科研创新项目(2024⁃031)
摘要:
为解决混合施工体系中的质量管控难题,以实际项目为依托,构建“特征筛选、建模、可解释、评分”的闭环研究方法. 通过将采集的施工日志、质检报告及现场实测数据扩充形成 1 000 组有效样本,提取铝模支撑、叠合板吊装、混凝土性能等 9 类核心特征,围绕铝模垂直度偏差、叠合板标高偏差与拼缝漏浆风险 3 类关键质量指标,对比 3 种机器学习预测算法的预测性能,得到以下结论:随机森林模型预测精度最优,其中垂直度偏差预测的 RMSE为 2. 1mm、R2 为 0. 962,叠合板标高偏差预测的 RMSE 为 1. 8mm、R2 为 0. 958,拼缝漏浆风险预测 F1值达 0. 91;研究通过剔除冗余特征后进一步筛选出铝模背楞间距、叠合板支撑间距、混凝土浇筑强度 3 个核心影响参数. 基于该模型构建施工质量综合评分体系,实现质量分级管控,可为同类项目的施工质量提前预警与参数优化提供技术支撑.

English:
To solve the problem of quality control in the mixed construction system, a closed⁃loop researchmethod of “ feature screening, modeling, interpretability, and scoring ” is constructed based onengrineering practice. By expanding the collected construction logs, quality inspection reports, and field⁃measured data to form 1 000 groups of valid samples, nine categories of core features, such as aluminumformwork support, composite plate hoisting, and concrete performance, etc. , were extracted. Theprediction performance of three machine learning prediction algorithms was compared around the threekey quality indicators of aluminum formwork verticality deviation, composite plate elevation deviation,and joint leakage risk. The results indicate that the random forest model has the optimal predictionaccuracy. The root mean square error (RMSE) and R2of verticality deviation prediction are 2. 1mm and0. 962, respectively. The RMSE and R2of composite plate elevation deviation prediction are 1. 8mm and0. 958, respectively. The risk prediction F1value of the joint leakage risk is 0. 91. After eliminating theredundant features, the three core influencing parameters of aluminum mold back corrugated spacing,composite plate support spacing, and concrete pouring strength were further screened out. Based on thismodel, a comprehensive scoring system for construction quality is constructed to realize quality gradingcontrol, which can provide technical support for early warning and parameter optimization of constructionquality of similar projects.