岩土与地下工程 2026年 第卷 第07期

DOI: 10.7672 / sgjs2026070056

基于 LMC⁃自适应重要性采样的地层模拟方法

李 伟¹,方 皓¹,张美宁²,王长帅¹,张大娃¹,陈 聪¹

作者简介:

李 伟,高级工程师,E⁃mail: 2161632248@ qq. com

作者单位:

1. 中国路桥工程有限责任公司,北京 100011; 2. 西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院,陕西 西安 710055

基金项目:

∗陕西省创新能力支撑计划———创新团队(2020TD⁃005);中国路桥工程有限责任公司 2023 重点科技攻关项目(2023⁃zlkj⁃08)

摘要:

由于岩土勘测初期钻孔数据的稀疏性,工程区域的地层模型需要大量的钻孔数据来构建. MCMC 模型可以处理稀疏的勘察钻孔数据,且具有参数简单和可量化地层不确定性的优点,因此被广泛用在地质建模和地质不确定分析中. 然而,传统的马尔可夫链假定地层的转移概率在整个时空范围内是恒定不变的,这一均匀性假设在地层模拟中存在较大的局限性,且蒙特卡洛在模拟地层序列的不连续性和变异性方面较为僵硬. 为此,提出了一种基于局部马尔可夫链⁃自适应重要性采样的地层模拟方法(简称 LMC⁃AIS). 该方法利用研究区钻孔统一深度区间片段化处理,构建地层转移概率矩阵、随机模拟地层状态和多片段叠加的方式建立适应复杂不均匀地层的模型;使用基于 LMC⁃AIS 模型生成地层序列的方差定量评价地质模型的不确定性. 研究结果表明,相较于传统方法,该方法不仅考虑了地层变化的不均匀性,还量化了地层预测中的不确定性.

English:

Due to the sparsity of borehole data in the early stage of geotechnical survey, the stratum modelof the engineering area needs a large amount of borehole data to construct. The MCMC model can processsparse survey borehole data and has the advantages of simple parameters and quantifiable formationuncertainty, so it is widely used in geological modeling and geological uncertainty analysis. However, thetraditional Markov chain assumes that the transition probability of the stratum is constant throughout thespace⁃time range. This uniformity assumption has great limitations in stratum simulation, and MonteCarlo is relatively rigid in simulating the discontinuity and variability of stratum sequences. Therefore, astratum simulation method based on local Markov chain⁃adaptive importance sampling ( LMC⁃AIS) isproposed. This method uses the unified depth interval fragmentation processing of boreholes in the studyarea to construct the stratum transition probability matrix, randomly simulate the stratum state, and multi⁃fragment superposition to establish a stratum model suitable for complex uneven strata. The uncertainty ofthe geological model is quantitatively evaluated by using the variance of the stratigraphic sequencegenerated based on the LMC⁃AIS model. The results indicate that compared with the traditional method,this method not only considers the inhomogeneity of formation change but also quantifies the uncertainty information prediction.