基于云模型的抽水蓄能电站洞室群施工风险评估
作者简介:
李 雷,工程师,E⁃mail:lileizxcv1125@ 163. com
作者单位:
中铁十八局集团第三工程有限公司,河北 涿州 072750
基金项目:
∗中铁十八局集团有限公司 2024 年度科研创新项目(2024⁃031)
摘要:
抽水蓄能电站洞室群施工常面临复杂的风险因素,亟需构建科学合理的施工风险评估模型以支撑安全施工决策. 基于此,构建了基于云模型的抽水蓄能电站洞室群施工风险评价模型. 依托湖北通山抽水蓄能电站洞室群的地质条件和施工方案,从工程地质、自然环境、设计与施工、管理方面考虑,建立了指标风险等级定性描述与定量分级结合的施工风险指标体系. 采用层次分析法确定了指标权重,基于云模型理论建立了云数字特征并生成综合评估云,进而完成风险等级判定. 结果表明,该项目的综合云数字特征为(48.178,6.495,1. 101),与“较低风险”等级的相似度最高(0. 207),与工程实际情况吻合良好,验证了模型在抽水蓄能电站洞室群施工风险评估中的有效性和适用性.

English:
The construction of a cavern group of pumped storage power stations is often faced with complexrisk factors. It is urgent to construct a scientific and reasonable construction risk assessment model tosupport safe construction decision⁃making. In accordance with this, the construction risk assessmentmodel of the pumped storage power station cavern group based on the cloud model is constructed. Basedon the geological conditions and construction scheme of the cavern group of the Tongshan Pumped StoragePower Station in Hubei Province, a construction risk index system combining qualitative description andquantitative classification of index risk grade was established from the aspects of engineering geology,natural environment, design and construction, and management. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was usedto determine the index weight. Based on the cloud model theory, the cloud digital features wereestablished, and the comprehensive evaluation cloud was generated to complete the risk leveldetermination. The results indicate that the comprehensive cloud digital characteristics of the project are(48.178, 6.495, 1. 101), and the similarity with the “lower risk” level is the highest (0. 207), which isin good agreement with the actual situation of the project. The validity and applicability of the model in theconstruction risk assessment of the cavern group of pumped storage power stations are verified.